A Market Split in Two

Right now, markets are essentially split into two distinct phases:

• Before the event: anticipation and positioning.
• After the event: reaction and repricing.

The “event” in focus is today’s US labor market release at 12:30 GMT. With investors eager for clarity, the results could redefine expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut.

Equities and Crypto Tighten Their Link

Crypto and equities traded in tandem this week:

• Bitcoin fluctuated between $110,000 and $111,000, before recovering during the US session.
• The S&P 500 edged closer to record highs.
• The NASDAQ climbed on tech and AI momentum.

Importantly, the correlation between NASDAQ and Bitcoin is now much higher than it was a year ago — a sign that macro-driven tech sentiment is increasingly shaping crypto markets.

Scandals and Politics Add Pressure

Beyond macro, political and regulatory news is feeding volatility:

• An SEC probe revealed that former chair Gary Gensler’s text messages were deleted using deep-clean methods. Some reportedly touched on crypto enforcement actions, fueling fresh questions about transparency.
• Meanwhile, politics and crypto continue to intersect. World Liberty Finance blacklisted Justin Sun over suspected token manipulation, while the rise of Trumpism is bringing sharper political tones into the digital asset debate.

Labor Data Shakes the Macro Picture

The labor report came in weaker than expected:

• Unemployment rose.
• Hiring slowed.
• Rate-cut bets strengthened.

Markets reacted quickly: bond yields dropped across the curve, while the US dollar hit a two-week high as investors recalibrated for a softer labor backdrop.

Gold, Oil, and ETFs in the Spotlight

• Gold touched a record $3,420 before pulling back into negative territory.

• Oil extended its decline, pressured by ongoing OPEC+ supply negotiations.

On the crypto ETF side:

• Bitcoin ETFs showed mixed activity. BlackRock stood out with $134M in inflows, its eighth consecutive day of gains.
• Ethereum ETFs were weaker, with Fidelity withdrawing $216M, leaving BlackRock as the lone bright spot.

Markets remain highly sensitive to every new macro signal. With volatility elevated across crypto and bonds, the next moves from the Federal Reserve, and the data that guides them will be decisive.

For crypto specifically, the deepening link with equities means traders can’t afford to ignore macro shifts. In today’s environment, the ability to navigate both economic data and regulatory headlines could be the difference between opportunity and risk.